Financial Markets Commentary
— In association with the overseas atlas
A Fresh Batch of Interesting Graphics With Very Brief Commentary
June 13, 2013 - No Comments
Ahead of a key FOMC meeting next week, where the Fed must shed light on it’s intentions, market swings have gone a bit awry: EM and the Carry trade are seeing days of severe pain as a result of huge outflows and fears of the end of free Central Bank liquidity, followed by days of sharp gains as the dip buyers rush in, looking for that all important yield. Market players bemoaned a lack of volatility and now there is decent volatility, they bemoan …
As We Head Into The Volatile Half-Year End…
June 9, 2013 - No Comments
Huge, air pocket style, swings in FX and equities have returned to the markets. There is now much less certainty of the overall direction in either way from here. The word ‘taper’ will be getting on the nerves of many, as will the excessive, mixed, confusing Fedspeak. Dangers are back emanating from China and the EM world, and Europe is starting to be loved again as Japan grapples to reaffirm stability. The US economy is still a mixed bag. It is not flying along …
Views On The Market’s Signals
May 30, 2013 - No Comments
Month end and on a Friday will bring all sorts of random moves to add to the increasing market volatility. It does feel like long held pent-up volatility is about to burst in this market as the comfort of the carry trade and the straight-line Abe trade and the Fed’s taken for granted lucidity are all under threat . The OECD’s revised lower growth forecasts for this year corroborate the decelerating global growth environment views. The Nikkei is still the …
Once More Deciphering The Fed As Volatility Wants To Return
May 26, 2013 - No Comments
Smatterings of a return to the old risk-on/risk-off correlations showed up last week as Fed taper confusion hit the carry trade and certain one way markets. CHF (which had been getting whacked) and JPY rallied as equities and risk assets got hurt. The USD was 3rd to those two and bonds fell despite the melee as markets over interpreted the confusing Fedspeak Nikkei watching is the new market tactic. Whereas previously, during European/US hours, very few had the Nikkei futures up, they are …
A Quick Look Around
May 19, 2013 - No Comments
Volumes are being written about this current market and it’s continued disconnect and distortions, it’s shunning of gravity and overall weak global data, and it’s ignoring of all types of statistical and breadth indicators. While plenty are bullish and euphoric and buy any dip possible, there are many who are bearish and have been bearish for a large part of this rally, frustrated by the fact that weak fundamentals worldwide cannot make a dent in these markets, which are driven purely by …